Quote:
The trial showed the once-daily drug helped patients lose 7.3% of their body weight within four weeks, versus weight loss of 1.2% in a placebo group, and results appeared unaffected by fasting or after high-fat meals—unlike some of its peers, Roche said.
At first look, the results are better than efficacy profiles reported by Novo Nordisk’s injectable Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s injectable Mounjaro, which both indicate 2%-4% weight loss at four weeks, Bryan Garnier Research analysts Bruno Bulic, Maria Vara and Oscar Haffen Lamm said in a note to clients.
A late stage trial by Novo Nordisk of its high-dose oral semaglutide drug last year showed weight loss of 15% after 68 weeks, but that was achieved alongside diet and physical activity.
Meanwhile, a Phase 1 trial of Novo Nordisk’s next generation amycretin weight-loss pill showed weight loss of around 13% after 12 weeks, better than the 6% weight loss patients experienced after 12 weeks in a trial of its blockbuster Wegovy drug.
Eli Lilly’s orforglipron obesity pill has shown weight loss of 15% after 36 weeks in a Phase 2 trial, with late-stage data expected next year.
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At first glance, I thought the 7.3% weight loss in 4 weeks sounded dangerously fast. But then I thought about how people new to LC/Keto can lose that much the first week or two - most of it fluid of course.
The question is whether or not the people on those drugs are losing mostly excess fluid those first few weeks, or if it's primarily fat loss.
How much muscle and bone mass is being lost during those few weeks? Is anyone even questioning that?
The rest of those stats are not all that much different from the losses you'd get from most diets. Since we're taking about obese individuals taking these drugs, lets use a hypothetical starting weight of 200 lbs:
4 weeks on oral drug (Roche):
7.3% would be 200-14.6=185.4 lbs or average of 3.65 lbs/week
4 weeks on injected drug (Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly):
2 % would be 200-4=196 or average of 1 lb/week
4% would be 200-8=192 or average of 2 lbs/week
_______
12 weeks on oral drug (Novo Nordisk):
13% would be 200-26=174 or average of 2.16 lbs/week
12 weeks on injected drug (Novo Nordisk):
6% would be 200-12 = 188 or average of 1 lb/week
_________
36 weeks on oral drug (Eli Lilly):
15% would be 200-30=170 or average of 0.83 lbs/week
________
68 weeks on oral drug, plus exercise and modified diet (Novo Nordisk):
15% would be 200-30=170 or average of 0.44 lbs/week
I separated them by number of weeks so that it's easier to see the comparison between different drugs.
When you break it down like that, other than the 2% and 4% stats after 4 weeks on the injected drugs, it doesn't look all that different from the average weight loss expected from most calorie based plans after the indicated number of weeks. Weight loss on most diets will start out fast, and as your body adjusts to the reduced caloric intake, weight loss slows down to 1/2 to 1-1/2 lb/week on average.
Even on LC there's generally a quick loss of excess fluid the first week or two, then it also slows down to an average of about 1/2 to 1-1/2 lb/week.
It would be interesting to see the stats for each brand of drug at the same number of weeks - all of them at 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 36 weeks and 68 weeks.
But if the 68 week stats on the Eli Lilly oral drug is anything to go by, chances are the Roche and Novo Nordisk oral drugs will slow down considerably and have similar results after that many weeks.
So the real concern is still what these drugs are actually doing to the ones who use them.... and of course once they reach a goal weight, are they going to be able to maintain their weight loss without the drug?
Roche Obesity Pill Achieves Positive Results in Early-Stage Trial
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