Stephen Dunphy / Times staff columnist
The Newsletter: AT&T Wireless now as big as AT&T

Twenty years ago, the Justice Department and American Telephone & Telegraph agreed on a historic breakup of Ma Bell, splitting the company into a long-distance service and seven "Baby Bells." At the time, AT&T was worth an estimated $80 billion, about $1.5 trillion in today's dollars.

As of Friday, AT&T Wireless is as big as AT&T, with the Redmond company's market cap at $21.4 billion compared with AT&T's $21.5 billion.

When McCaw Cellular (now AT&T Wireless) was sold to AT&T eight years ago, the value of the wireless resources was about 15 percent of AT&T's total value. In those eight years, wireless has grown and AT&T has gradually divested assets, said Tim Raetzloff, an Edmonds computer-store owner who tracks market cap of local companies.

Look for a big shift by manufacturers to reformulate everything they can to be low in carbohydrates. With the Atkins diet getting even more buzz, expect to see the "low carbohydrate" claim push out the "low fat" claim.

That's the prediction by Mintel's Global New Products Database for what will be hot in 2003. The company studies brands and trends.

Mintel's also expects Asian cuisine to grow in popularity. Always flying just under the radar as takeout and at some deli counters, Asian-inspired foods' appeal will propel mass production by manufacturers. Frozen meals and meal kits (perhaps in the refrigerated section because of the heavy veggie component) will be the first signs of the shift.

Don't forget the Federal Reserve has another big tool to help shape the economy. Most of the attention is focused on rate cuts, but the Fed can also expand the supply of money.

It's complicated, but essentially the Fed buys government bills or notes when it wants to pump up the money supply, and it sells some of its bills and notes when it wants to slow money growth. So what could happen?

Congress could pass a tax cut early next year with the Fed acting in concert by increasing the money supply. The Fed finances the tax cut by keeping borrowing costs low.

Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke made that point in a speech last week before the National Economists Club in Washington, D.C.

"In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities," he said. "A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption, and hence to prices."

Still a slump in the chip business. The book-to-bill ratio for semiconductor manufacturers was 0.73 in the third quarter, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), an industry trade group. That means $73 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed.

"While there are indications that capacity has been added throughout the current downturn at leading-edge fabs, broader-based capacity expansion has been on hold," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "This trend will continue into 2003 until semiconductor manufacturers have stronger signals regarding the outlook for chip demand."

Stephen H. Dunphy's columns appear Tuesdays-Fridays and Sundays. Phone: 206-464-2365. Fax: 206-382-8879. E-mail: sdunphy~seattletimes.com. More columns at www.seattletimes.com/columnists.

Copyright © 2002 The Seattle Times Company

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Press Release Source: Mintel

Mintel's Global New Products Database Trend Predictions for 2003
Monday November 25, 12:32 pm ET

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 25, 2002--Some things to look forward to! The predictions by Mintel's Global New Products Database for what will be hot or not in 2003.

Cuisine of the year

Asian. Easy to prepare and healthy, Asian foods will experience a surge in popularity in 2003. Always flying just under the radar by being available as take out and at some deli counters, the appeal for Asian-inspired foods will propel mass production by manufacturers. Frozen meals and meal kits (perhaps in the refrigerated section because of the heavy veggie component) will be the first to show development.

Simplicity. Clean graphics with minimal print on packs will be what hooks consumers in 2003. And manufacturers won't have to figure how to fit every "low fat, low calorie, you-won't-gain-an-ounce-by-eating-this-product" claim on a package.

Flavor of the year

Citrus. Nothing new, but getting extremely popular. And everyone needs vitamin C. Runner up -- Wasabi!

Scent of the year

Vanilla. This traditional scent is popping up everywhere in skincare, fragrances, and even teas. We'll be seeing more of a good thing.

Ingredient of the year

White tea. Green tea was all the rage for the last three years; now it is white tea's turn. It's already appeared in skincare products and, of course, tea. Expect this ingredient, which is chock-full of beneficial anti-oxidants, to be popping up in vitamins and healthcare products, haircare, and other food products.

Kids with mature tastebuds

Children generate billions in business and manufacturers have tuned in. In 2001 we saw "mystery" ketchup colors, blue french fries, and, most recently, green pancake syrup from the Mrs. Butterworth's brand. In essence, products that were already kid-friendly got more so. In 2002, however, we expect to find that kids are going to be the target for products that have been considered only to be appealing to the adult market. For example, coffee. Coffee drinkers are getting younger, and with the growing appeal of RTD iced coffees and the mammoth spread of Starbucks, we predict that there will soon be a kid-targeted coffee drink.

Going the distance

Ten years ago, the newest fad was having your makeup tattooed to your face. It never seemed to catch on, but it did highlight the desire women have for longer-lasting, no-mess cosmetics. We now have long-lasting lipsticks and a three-day wear last tint but the next area up for semi-permanence is fragrances. Potent, but not overpowering, scents will last until you take them off.

Beverages crossover

We've seen a surge in amorphous beverage and dairy drinks of late. Is it a soda, a juice, a milk drink, a meal replacement beverage? This trend is primed to burst like a shaken can of soda in 2003. Manufacturers are playing with all sorts of products with niche appeal. Perhaps juice-flavored milk packed with nutrients to replace a meal? A yogurt drink with fizz?

Puppy love

Are pets people? Expect to see gourmet cat and dog food, perhaps the kind you store in the refrigerator next to your own food, to be mass produced in 2003. We've seen bakery kits that allow owners to make their own doggie bones and premium-priced single-servings of pet food.

The universal sauce

Spiked ketchup, mixed-up mayo--we've seen these seasoned products hit market in 2002. And with each new product we see, we wonder when we will find the "universal sauce." Something like a hot and spicy, but mild-mannered sauce that can serve every application and please everyone. We soon won't need more than one bottle in the fridge.

Downsizing carbs

Manufacturers will be busy reformulating everything they can to be low in carbohydrates. Anheuser-Busch did it with Michelob Ultra and a new reformulation of Doc's Hard Lemonade and now the Atkins diet is getting even more buzz as consumers wonder whether this whole low fat, low calorie thing they've been cottoning to for the last ten years is the right choice. Expect to see the "low carbohydrate" claim push over the "low fat" claim.

Beverages get hip

This year was packed with events and promotions that were geared toward the urban market. Sprite held a Summer Liquid Mix Tour that offered entertainment, fashion, and music, SoBe sponsored the ESPN Rock 'N' Rip tour in early 2002, and we're all familiar with those popular Pepsi commercials and ads. We expect more of a musical tie-in with alcoholic beverages next year, as artists continue to incorporate them into their songs and videos. And with hip-hop mogul Jay-Z recently purchasing a brand of vodka, this prediction will prosper.

Established in 1972, Mintel incorporates Mintel consumer intelligence, global new products database (www.gnpd.com), and Mintel consultancy. Mintel is an independent research company which operates offices in Chicago, London, Munich and Sydney. For more information on Mintel, please visit our website at www.mintel.com.
Contact:

Mintel
Alissa Ostrowski, 312/932-0400 x255
aostrows~mintel.com


Source: Mintel

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